. Semiconductor weakness still rebounds less quickly than expected. - QTreeic

Semiconductor weakness still rebounds less quickly than expected.

3/9/2023 11:26:58 AM

Wind data shows that in March, global semiconductor sales amounted to US$ 23.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Although the sales amount in February decreased by 7.28% year-on-year, which narrowed for the first time in 22 months, the data in March remained weak, and the rebound rate of the industry was not as optimistic as expected.

From the ring data, in the 13 years from 2000 to now, the average growth rate in March was 2.4%, while the growth rate in March this year was only 1.83%, and the seasonal effect in March was weaker than in previous years. Judging from the compound growth of the whole industry for 13 years, the compound annual growth rate is 3.7%, which also means that the current growth rate of the industry is far from the normal year level.


At present, the fundamentals of the industry are still not optimistic. The slow recovery of demand for mobile phones and other terminals, high industry inventory, low capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity are the main obstacles restricting the rapid recovery of the industry.

Global mobile phone sales declined slightly in the first quarter. At the beginning of the year, the market generally expected that the global mobile phone sales would reach about 1.6 billion units this year, up about 5%-7% year-on-year. However, IDC, a market research company, published a report last week, saying that the global cumulative sales of mobile phones are currently 398 million units, down 1.49% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.

New capacity is released one after another, and the capacity utilization rate is not high. In 2011, the global expenditure on semiconductor capital equipment reached $44.8 billion, an increase of 10.2% compared with the expenditure of $40.6 billion in 2010. According to relevant analysis, the fixed assets of the semiconductor industry lead the total production capacity for 1-2 quarters, while the expenditure on semiconductor equipment leads the fixed assets for 1-2 quarters. In other words, the expenditure on semiconductor equipment in 2011 will be converted into effective production capacity this year. Affected by the new capacity in 2010, the global semiconductor capacity utilization rate is only 86.2%. As mentioned above, in 2012, the global new production capacity was still high, which means that the capacity utilization rate will continue to be loose, and some idle production capacity directly lowered the gross profit margin level of enterprises.

To sum up, both the supply and demand sides of the industry are under great pressure. According to iSuppli survey, the average global semiconductor inventory days in the fourth quarter of 2011 increased by 3.4% from 81.3 days in the previous quarter to 84.1 days, setting a new high since the first quarter of 2001. Although the industry inventory has begun to digest in the first quarter of 2012, the digestion is not obvious. Global semiconductor inventory is still at a relatively high level, and it is difficult to make a large-scale replenishment of inventory, and the recovery of the semiconductor industry still has a long way to go.

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